Election Prediction Project

Canada Federal Election - 2015


Prediction Changed
2015-03-24 23:44:13

Constituency Profile


Bergen, Candice

Dondo, Jerome

Eert, Beverley

Harder, Dean

Werbiski, Ken

(2011 census)


2011 Result/résultats (redistributed)

Other 8092.38%
Reference - Pundits’ Guide (2013 Rep)

Component Riding(s)
Circonscription(s) constituant

   (193/209 polls, 94.54% of voters in new riding)
   2011/2008/2004 Predictions
   Reference - Pundits’ Guide (2003 Rep Order)

Hon. Candice Bergen

   (14/209 polls, 5.27% of voters in new riding)
   2011/2008/2004 Predictions
   Reference - Pundits’ Guide (2003 Rep Order)

Ted Falk

   (2/209 polls, 0.19% of voters in new riding)
   2011/2008/2004 Predictions
   Reference - Pundits’ Guide (2003 Rep Order)

James Bezan


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15 10 05 Teddy Boragina
A note about the CHP in this riding.
Although I've selected them, I don't see them winning, rather, this is information about the party and the riding.
Historically, this riding has been very keen to vote for tiny right-wing alternatives. The CHP itself has managed 203% in 2011, 2.8% in 2008, 2.7% in 2006, and 4.2% in 2004. Make no mistake, these are outstanding results for a 'tiny' party.
The CHP also managed 5.5% in 1988, despite Reform taking 8.7% in the riding. In 1984, a candidate for the Confederations of Regions party (sort of a proto-reform party, somewhat of a continuation of the old western socreds) managed a whopping 22% here.
While many of the voters from 1984 have likely passed on, the same idealism and mindset still remain among the voters of today.
As such the CHP, and other right-wing parties (especially socially conservative ones) can rely on a good 2%-5% of the vote as a pure base.
15 09 17 Prairie Bumpkin
Candice Bergen was notably absent from an all-candidates debate earlier in this month. It was hosted by the Manitoba Metis Frderation, and is a big snub to aboriginal issues in this province.
15 09 01 A.S.
Redistribution has taken Portage-Lisgar out of its 2011 status as one of only two ridings where the NDP failed to clear the 10% deposit threshold (and both here and in Crowfoot, single digits didn't prevent the NDP from second-place bragging rights!). As it stands, it's the proverbial sort of place where someone going by the name 'Mickey Mouse' can win under the Conservative banner, so why not 'Candice Bergen'...
15 08 23 Prairie Bumpkin
NDP have not yet nominated/named a candidate for Portage-Lisgar as of 23 August 2015. Not sure what the delay is. Harper, Trudeau, and now Mulcair have all visited Winnipeg up to this point in the campaign. Bergen has signs around the riding along main arteries and a couple of homes with one Liberal and a couple Christian Heritage Party signs on front lawns.
15 08 04 prairie bumpkin
Easy win for Bergen. Not really sure what she did for the riding though, lower vote count for CPC on account of CPC voters staying home to punish Harper,
15 03 29 monkey
In three of the last four elections, this has been the Tories' best showing outside Alberta so its not a question of it they will win this or not, its rather will it be their best showing outside Alberta or not.
15 03 25 JC
This along with Provencher are the safest Tory seats in Manitoba.
15 03 24 Philly D.
Having voted Reform/Alliance/CPC since 1993 (a year where the Liberals won 12 of 14 in Manitoba), and with 75% of the vote last time, this riding will surprise no one and will be called within an hour an election night.
15 03 24 Dr. Bear
Candice Bergen is a star in the Harper caucus and will easily hold this rural, prairie riding.

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