Election Prediction Project

2019 Federal Election ~ Élections fédérales

Prediction Changed
2019-10-22 01:43:22

Constituency Profile


Cacereco Berthiaume, Jean-Patrick

Gagnon, Christian

Lefebvre, Susanne

Lupien, Luc

Magnan, Alain

Paré, Christine

Penner, Steve

Sibthorpe, Mark

Trudeau, Justin

Vazquez, Juan

Veilleux, Sophie


Justin Trudeau

Population (2016):
Population (2011):

Private dwellings:
Dwellings occupied by usual residents:

Land area
Population Density



9.91 km²

2015 Results - 2015 Prediction
   Reference - Pundits’ Guide (2013 Rep. Order)

Justin Trudeau ** 2639152.00%
Anne Lagacé Dowson 1313225.90%
Maxime Claveau 618212.20%
Yvon Vadnais 23904.70%
Danny Polifroni 14432.80%
Chris Lloyd 5051.00%
Tommy Gaudet 3230.60%
Kim Waldron 1590.30%
Peter Macrisopoulos 1420.30%
Beverly Bernardo 1030.20%

2011 Results (redistributed)

Other 3560.78%

Component Riding(s) (2003 Representation Order)

   (92.13% of voters in current riding)
   2011/2008/2004 Predictions
   Reference - Pundits’ Guide

   (4.31% of voters in current riding)
   2011/2008/2004 Predictions
   Reference - Pundits’ Guide

   (3.57% of voters in current riding)
   2011/2008/2004 Predictions
   Reference - Pundits’ Guide

27/08/19 A.S.
What *could* be interesting is if even in a distinctly post-Orange Crush climate under Jagmeet, the NDP remain in second--after all, QS would have won within these boundaries provincially in '18; the Bloc doesn't seem quite the "urban" force it once was; and even in 2015, Anne Lagacé Dowson overperformed in such a way that suggested that had the Mulcair bubble not burst, she could actually have taken down Justin. Now, a *distant* second; but, still...second.
22/08/20 seasaw
Though Mr Trudeau is the first Canadian PM, to be found guilty of conflict of interest, I somehow don't believe that it's going to hinder his chances here. He may not be PM in 2 months, or leader if he loses, but he's still going to be the MP from this riding
As much as I dislike Justin Trudeau, unless it is a 1993 Tory style collapse for the most incompetent government we have ever had, Justin Trudeau will hold on here.
I also predict that Papineau will be the first by-election of the new parliament :-)
24/05/19 ottawa99
Si cette circonscription consistait uniquement de Villeray, une victoire du NPD ou du Bloq serait peut-être possible. Cela nécessiterait une bonne campagne aux niveaux local et national et, pour le Bloq, la sélection d'un candidat plus crédible que Matthieu Brien. Cela dit, l'inclusion de Parc Ex dans la circonscription assure que ça voterait confortablement Libéral.
If this seat only consisted of Villeray, the NDP and Bloc might be able to take it. This would require a very good campaign, both locally and nationally. For the Bloc, it would also require the selection of a more credible candidate than Matthieu Brien. That said, the inclusion of Parc Ex in the riding ensures that it will go comfortably Liberal.
13/04/19 Sam
Full disclaimer that I'm not a fan of Justin either, but he'll win here, and the Liberals will even if that small chance that he leaves office somehow happens.
11/04/19 Laurence Putnam
The worst prime minister of the past 50 years is as safe as could be; likely to be returned with 60%+ this time.
23/03/19 Marco Ricci
While it's true that ‘anything can happen’ in Quebec, anything cannot happen in Papineau. It would take a political earthquake for Justin Trudeau to lose here. This is one of the most secure Liberal ridings in Quebec -- it has voted Liberal every time since the 1950's except once during the Sponsorship Scandal when the BQ was at its height in Montreal, and when the Liberals were way down. The BQ is not back to those days, the NDP is on the decline in QC, and the Cons are in single digits here. Trudeau may lose the PM job this year, but it's hard to see how he could lose here.
03/03/19 seasaw
If Justin Trudeau is still PM by election day, he'll most certainly take this seat. If he isn't, the Liberals still have a good shot but we also have to remember that this is Quebec and anything can happen here at the drop of a hat
24/02/19 M. Lunn
Trudeau may lose his majority and if he has a bad year even lose outright, but he will not lose his riding. BQ only barely won when running high after adscam while NDP has some potential here as QS had a strong second place showing in this area, but with their weakened status in Quebec, they won't be a factor. This has consistently been one of the top five worst ridings for the Tories so it would be a major shocker if they just got their deposit back. Otherwise Trudeau is going back to Ottawa, just a question of whether he remains prime-minister in a majority government, prime-minister in a minority, or on the opposition benches (last one less likely than first two).
17/02/19 JW
Still early, and a lot can change, but the Prime Minister will not have to worry about his own seat, especially with NDP collapsing in Quebec.

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