Election Prediction Project

2021 Federal Election ~ Élections fédérales

Prediction Changed
2021-05-11 22:28:13

Constituency Profile


Baron, Sarah Gabrielle

Cameron, Chris

Conlin, Patricia

Giancroce, Jonathan

O'Toole, Erin

Patch, Kurdil-Telt

Smith, Adam


Erin O'Toole

Population (2016):
Population (2011):

Private dwellings:
Dwellings occupied by usual residents:

Land area
Population Density



869.61 km²

2019 Results - 2019 Prediction

Erin O'Toole ** 3075242.10%
Jonathan Giancroce 2354732.20%
Sarah Whalen-Wright 1332318.20%
Evan Price 39505.40%
Brenda Virtue 14422.00%

2015 Results - 2015 Prediction
   Reference - Pundits’ Guide (2013 Rep. Order)

Erin O'Toole ** 2896745.10%
Corinna Traill 2294935.80%
Derek Spence 1028916.00%
Stacey Leadbetter 16162.50%
Andrew Moriarity 3640.60%

2011 Results (redistributed)

Other 4990.99%

Component Riding(s) (2003 Representation Order)

   (79.34% of voters in current riding)
   2011/2008/2004 Predictions
   Reference - Pundits’ Guide

   (17.14% of voters in current riding)
   2011/2008/2004 Predictions
   Reference - Pundits’ Guide

   (3.51% of voters in current riding)
   2011/2008/2004 Predictions
   Reference - Pundits’ Guide

2018 Provincial Results - 2018 Prediction

Lindsey Park 2857546.99%
Joel Usher 1925331.66%
Granville Anderson * 1023716.84%
Michelle Corbett 23603.88%

2014 Provincial Results (redistributed)

Other 4050.84%

03/09/21 R.O.
Could see more competitive races in this riding in the future as its grows but not buying into the idea this election with Erin O’toole as party leader and long time mp since 2012. Also no star candidates for liberals or ndp just same candidate who ran last election Jonathan Giancroce and a new ndp candidate Chris Cameron. Riding features no green candidate but they haven’t been much of a factor here.
03/09/21 seasaw
I'm changing my prediction from Liberal to TCTC. The prospect of a Liberal majority, as it stands right now, have been greatly reduced, though, there is still 21/2 weeks left in the campaign, and the Liberals still have an outside shot at forming a majority. The more likely outcome though, is a minority. That and the fact that Erin O'toole has ran a decent campaign so far, makes this riding TCTC.
02/09/21 Sam
At the time I promised that I would move this to whichever party. I stand by my earlier TCTC - it's not like the CPC gains were inevitable - but I am willing to project this as CPC now in line with my original prediction. If anything, Oshawa and Whitby will be the battlegrounds in Durham, though this riding is not as safe as Pickering-Uxbridge or Ajax. Still, comfortable enough.
20/08/21 DurhamDave
The only way I see O'Toole ‘pulling an Ignatieff’ and losing in his own riding is if the Cons have a total collapse in Ontario. I think he'll win by a smaller margin due to the Con's lower polling numbers than last time, but he still winds handedly.
14/08/21 Thomas K
What those who note that O'Toole ‘lost ground’ in 2019 are failing to see is that he actually improved his margin over his Liberal opponent despite earning a smaller percentage of the overall vote. Given that the NDP and Greens don't have a shot at winning this riding, I don't really see this as being indicative of a threat to his seat. I doubt the Conservatives will have a meltdown this election, which is generally required for a party leader to lose their seat (notwithstanding Christy Clark 2013).
13/08/21 Sam
This riding is now a battleground - I'm not going to call it either way but O'Toole has to put up a fight here - both holding on to his vote in the Northern parts of the seat, and stopping the Liberal tide in some of the urban areas he does less well in, particularly the outer fringes of Oshawa. He can do that - he's done it before, but whether his own national performance drags him down will determine how much he needs to do locally. I also don't think his leadership boost is going to help him much here and he's hardly a fresh face.
So I'll leave my prediction as TCTC now as I do think it is going to be rather close. If things swing one way or the other, I'll put it down for whichever party.
10/07/21 A.S.
I *do* feel Durham bears watching simply on grounds of CPC's polling doldrums and O'Toole having rather ominously lost ground in '19. However, despite claims, the Lib share did *not* go up--indeed, the CPC-Lib margin actually opened up slightly over '15 (instead, that mutual lost share migrated to NDP & Green). It's *where* things swung on behalf of the Libs that might be most foretelling: in the rapidly-growing N Oshawa environs, part of the advancing front of â€کGTA suburban Liberalism’ (by comparison, Durham's Grit vote was more evenly distributed in '15). OTOH I wouldn't so brashly abide by the â€کloser party leader’ argument on behalf of O'Toole as a goner in his own seat (indeed, John Turner contrarily defeated a Tory incumbent in 1984's otherwise-disaster)--but there does seem to be a curious blindness to his sluggish result in an election where, thanks to first-leadership-bid good will, he was widely expected to outperform the mean. Of course, one thing that *could* save him, this being Greater Oshawa and everything (and picking up from '19's share gains): an outperforming NDP splitting the opposition. (Now if they outperformed enough to *win*, now *there'd* be the sound of O'Toole's blue-collar strategy backfiring.)
02/07/21 Rt. Hon. Adult
For the last six months, I've watched Erin O'Toole settle into his role as Oppo leader and have had a growing sense that he's going to be one of those leaders who goes down with the ship (Ignatieff, Tory, Peterson being other Ontario examples). This comes from...
-a lack of conviction: he could be a Red Tory statesman ala Joe Clark, or ‘True Blue’, but O'Toole and his handlers are too obviously opportunistic and it reeks...
-little loyalty: Which group in the Big Blue Tent has O'Toole inspired to follow him in the charge? In just a year, he's managed to annoy or alienate every part of the coalition, and that hits home too.
-the turf: Durham used to be ‘true blue’ too, but it has shifted, as evidenced by the Liberal vote share having gone up between 2015 and the blackface election of 2019. The provincial Liberals have also shown that Team Red can win here when the Tory leader is a dud (see 2014).
-a lack of vision: finally, while there are many things the Tories could easily attack Justin Trudeau on this round (eg Canada's ‘most likely to end up like China award...’), Team Tory is jumping from moment to moment (eg Canada Day) without crafting a true vision for the country. By the end of the campaign, expect even the folks of Durham to be ready to change the channel...
28/06/21 seasaw
Okay, I'm making this prediction based on the latest polls which suggest that the Liberals will win a majority. Also, based on previous elections, the third time has been a charm for all but one PM seeking it, and all but one have won a majority. That's why if the Liberals were to win a majority, this riding is theirs. Don't think that the people here will vote in a loser party leader, who will resign shortly after the election and will have to have a by election next time. However, they say in politics, an afternoon can be a lifetime, and there are lots of afternoons between now and election day. I should also note that suppose election day is in late October, O'Toole's numbers are better than Harper's 4 months before the 2006 election and Trudeau's are much worse than Paul Martin's at this stage of the game. So, I'm saying Liberal now, but the prediction might change if the Liberals weren't poised to win a majority
12/05/21 Jeremus von Stroheim
This riding would probably be in play if O'Toole wasn't leader and didn't have his name brand, but with those it should be a fairly safe conservative hold.

Navigate to Canada 2021 Home | Provincial/Regional Index | Submission

Canada Federal Election - 2021 - Élections fédérales canadiennes
Election Prediction Project - www.electionprediction.com
© Election Prediction Project, 1999-2021 - Email Webmaster