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Flamborough-Glanbrook
2021 Federal Election ~ Élections fédérales


Prediction Changed
2021-05-08 22:20:00
 



Constituency Profile

Candidates:



Incumbent:

David Sweet

References:
Population (2016):
Population (2011):

Private dwellings:
Dwellings occupied by usual residents:

Land area
Population Density

111065
97081

38709
38111

886.16 km²
125.30/km²


2019 Results - 2019 Prediction

David Sweet ** 2452739.20%
Jennifer Stebbing 2287536.60%
Allison Cillis 1032216.50%
Janet Errygers 38336.10%
David Tilden 9821.60%


2015 Results - 2015 Prediction
   Reference - Pundits’ Guide (2013 Rep. Order)

David Sweet ** 2413743.50%
Jennifer Stebbing 2172839.10%
Mike DiLivio 777914.00%
David Allan Urquhart 18663.40%


2011 Results (redistributed)

2514455.40%
1034422.79%
767116.90%
18924.17%
Other 3360.74%


Component Riding(s) (2003 Representation Order)


   Niagara West-Glanbrook
   (45.21% of voters in current riding)
   2011/2008/2004 Predictions
   Reference - Pundits’ Guide


   Ancaster-Dundas-Flamborough-Westdale
   (45.14% of voters in current riding)
   2011/2008/2004 Predictions
   Reference - Pundits’ Guide


   Hamilton Mountain
   (9.66% of voters in current riding)
   2011/2008/2004 Predictions
   Reference - Pundits’ Guide


2018 Provincial Results - 2018 Prediction

Donna Skelly 2245443.53%
Melissa Mcglashan 1763034.17%
Judi Partridge 796715.44%
Janet Errygers 23074.47%


2014 Provincial Results (redistributed)

1537235.58%
1532535.47%
979122.66%
19554.53%
Other 7581.76%


11/05/21 Craig
24.233.229.249
This is probably the best chance the Liberals will have for a pickup here due to continued population growth before new boundaries arrive. A few close elections have made it a reasonable possibility and continued growth in Waterdown and South Hamilton (and, to a lesser extent, Binbrook) have put this seat in play. David Sweet might be leaving at the right time - he was the ideal candidate here 10, 15 years ago but not now.
What does that mean? Flamborough-Glanbrook is a tossup. The Conservatives should still win the rural areas easily (barring a PPC split), but the urban areas are the ones growing and they are largely coming from the GTA with Liberal views. (The only question mark if the LPC picks the seat up is what would a new Liberal MP be left with after redistribution?)
06/05/21 Chris N
24.36.32.209
Since the riding was established in 2015, the riding has observed growing support for the Liberals, due in large part to the explosive suburban growth of Binbrook and Waterdown. With CPC incumbent David Sweet not running in the next election, I anticipate this to be a very close race.



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