Hatch, Thomas
	Muys, Dan
	Newick, Lorne
	Panchyshyn, Bill
	Sgro, Vito
Incumbent:
	David Sweet

References:

Population (2016): Population (2011): Private dwellings: Dwellings occupied by usual residents: Land area Population Density			111065 97081 38709 38111 886.16 km² 125.30/km²
2019 Results - 2019 Prediction
	David Sweet **	24527	39.20%
	Jennifer Stebbing	22875	36.60%
	Allison Cillis	10322	16.50%
	Janet Errygers	3833	6.10%
	David Tilden	982	1.60%
2015 Results - 2015 Prediction    Reference - Pundits’ Guide (2013 Rep. Order)
	David Sweet **	24137	43.50%
	Jennifer Stebbing	21728	39.10%
	Mike DiLivio	7779	14.00%
	David Allan Urquhart	1866	3.40%
2011 Results (redistributed)
		25144	55.40%
		10344	22.79%
		7671	16.90%
		1892	4.17%
Other		336	0.74%
Component Riding(s) (2003 Representation Order)
Niagara West-Glanbrook    (45.21% of voters in current riding)    2011/2008/2004 Predictions    Reference - Pundits’ Guide
Ancaster-Dundas-Flamborough-Westdale    (45.14% of voters in current riding)    2011/2008/2004 Predictions    Reference - Pundits’ Guide
Hamilton Mountain    (9.66% of voters in current riding)    2011/2008/2004 Predictions    Reference - Pundits’ Guide
2018 Provincial Results - 2018 Prediction
	Donna Skelly	22454	43.53%
	Melissa Mcglashan	17630	34.17%
	Judi Partridge	7967	15.44%
	Janet Errygers	2307	4.47%
2014 Provincial Results (redistributed)
		15372	35.58%
		15325	35.47%
		9791	22.66%
		1955	4.53%
Other		758	1.76%

	19/09/21	prognosticator15 97.108.177.163
I sometimes wonder how the seat calls are made on this site. Here we have mostly pro-Cons 'hold' opinions and a pro-Cons Mainstreet poll cited (even though we have to be cautious about such polls), but it is still called Lib largely on the basis of urban expansion. I understand that A.S. (with an amazing command of street-level material on nearly all ridings across the country) and some others strongly believe in more or less instant electoral change with urban/suburban expansion and talk of Kitchener-Conestoga and certainly Milton and its Adam the Conqueror Liberal who is again strongly projected to win. Perhaps in the Milton case at least the call is right this time... But usually such change tends to be slow and it is a stretch to accept the fact it is usually permanent. Is it really sufficient here to claim that FINALLY to the delight of progressives another piece of expanding greater GTA area electoral furniture can be claimed? I do not think so. It has certainly become closer, but current CPC (with its Red Tory image) and a new candidate who has been commented upon below, may just be sufficient to keep it by a fairly narrow margin, and keep PPC at bay. O'Toole visit here close to the end of campaign surely shows it is close and has not been won by anyone yet, but where others' bias might be in favor of change, I look at it today primarily as an overlap between anti-Lib southwestern Ontario trends that Lib rise in Toronto does not address, and expanding suburbia that brings in new trends while being partly influenced by the old ones. On probabilities, I add a close call for Cons hold.
	19/09/21	Dr Bear 72.143.192.71
This is one that I have kept an eye on for a long time. It’s growing quickly, becoming less rural and more suburban. This was a prime Liberal pick up seat, however they are polling down a few points and I think it will be enough for it to be a Conservative hold…this time….
	17/09/21	George 104.232.37.109
Mainstreet of Sept 15 has a small Conservative lead, 36 Con to 32 Liberal among decided. This is with the PPC registering 8%. https://ipolitics.ca/wp-content/uploads/2021/09/FlamboroughGlanbrook-iPolitics-16September2021.pdf
	13/09/21	D & S 173.33.14.94
Sgro is outsigning Muys all over the ward and was the only candidate pulling advance vote. If the PPC get to 5-6% here, all he needs to do is hold the vote in an area he won in the Mayor's race. LPC gain.
	12/09/20	Chris N 24.36.46.234
8 days before the election, I give the edge to the Conservatives. The Liberal Vito Sgro campaign seems to be matching the outreach and visibility of the Jennifer Stebbing Liberal campaign in 2019, but not exceeding it. As a result, I think they will just fall short like last time.
	02/09/21	Predictions 70.31.104.47
If 2021 had 2019 numbers, this would be a prime Liberal target, what with all the suburban growth in Glanbrook. But that's not the case now, and Vito Sgro is not a particularly strong candidate. Sweet's retirement probably isn't that much of a loss here for the Tories either, because his brand of politics is much more ‘rural Wentworth county’ than ‘suburban steeltown’, and Flam-Glan is increasingly becoming the latter. I'd say Dan Muys holds this for the Tories with a margin between 5-10
	31/08/21	R.O. 24.146.13.237
This riding has no incumbent as conservative David Sweet has retired . riding in this exact boundaries has only existed since 2015. Both races were relatively close between conservatives and liberals . past liberal candidate Jennifer Stebbing is not back replaced by Vito Sgro. Conservatives new candidate is Dan Muys. Conservative hold if they remain competitive in Ontario
	24/08/21	AJV 69.156.39.89
This will be a LPC - CPC battle with the edge going to Sgro. While he was a ‘failed’ mayoral candidate, as a previous poster wrote, he had a respectable showing and did well in much of this riding’s municipal wards.
	18/08/21	Hammer 108.162.89.61
This should have been an easy pick up for the Liberals, then they nominate failed mayoral candidate Vito Srgo, of the old guard Hamilton Liberals. Stebbing and Partridge both ran before and would've been a better suburban candidate. The riding is now closer than it should be.
	15/08/21	Innocent Bystander 99.236.127.43
This riding has been trending Liberal as it urbanizes in both the Waterdown and Elfrida areas. Certainly not a safe-ish Tory seat anymore.
	06/08/21	A.S. 99.225.52.35
It's the kind of seat that could have flipped had Sweet retired an election or two earlier. *Could have*. Worth considering that Sweet won in '19 w/a share virtually identical to the Libs' losing share in '15--and had the share gained by the NDP from '15-19 stuck w/the Libs, the Libs and Cons would have been essentially equal (and that's not even addressing the gained *Green* share). That is, vote splitting--particularly within Hamilton's NDP-friendly orbit--will always loom over seemingly ‘sure thing’ Lib shoulders. But it remains among the five-or -less likeliest CPC-held seats in Ontario to fall.
	11/05/21	Craig 24.233.229.249
This is probably the best chance the Liberals will have for a pickup here due to continued population growth before new boundaries arrive. A few close elections have made it a reasonable possibility and continued growth in Waterdown and South Hamilton (and, to a lesser extent, Binbrook) have put this seat in play. David Sweet might be leaving at the right time - he was the ideal candidate here 10, 15 years ago but not now. What does that mean? Flamborough-Glanbrook is a tossup. The Conservatives should still win the rural areas easily (barring a PPC split), but the urban areas are the ones growing and they are largely coming from the GTA with Liberal views. (The only question mark if the LPC picks the seat up is what would a new Liberal MP be left with after redistribution?)
	06/05/21	Chris N 24.36.32.209
Since the riding was established in 2015, the riding has observed growing support for the Liberals, due in large part to the explosive suburban growth of Binbrook and Waterdown. With CPC incumbent David Sweet not running in the next election, I anticipate this to be a very close race.