|This struck me as a bit of a fluke on election day. It really is not a right-wing riding. Aside from the lightly populated area around Belcarra, which has a right-leaning wealthy population similar to Seymour, the rest of this has been an integral part of the Greater Vancouver Orange blob for the last few elections provincially, so the vast majority of people here don't want a Conservative. Last election was nothing short of the perfect vote split resulting from solid Liberal and NDP campaigns, and a fairly strong green result. This time there is no Green and the PPC are surging, so I'm confident this won't go Conservative barring a historic polling error. Between the Liberals and NDP, The NDP is up more in BC and Zarrillo, who is a great candidate, is back. I don't know much about the Liberal candidate, but I'm not hearing especially inspired arguments about their chances, so they're probably just okay, but not amazing. I've been humbled by years of being tricked by bad polling, so it's entirely possible that something odd happens, but if the NDP picks up any seats in BC, which seems very likely, this will almost certainly be one of them. Definitely the NDP's to lose.|
|I retract the CPC pick. The NDP are now surging in BC. Insight West large sample poll showing NDP & CPC in the 30s and LPC mid twenties.|
Ground game won’t be as important when you are surging in the province.
|Tough riding to predict , whats interesting is Nelly Shin was the first Korean woman to get elected to parliament yet the liberals and ndp are going all out to make sure it doesn’t happen again despite claiming to want a more diverse house of commons with more women. Riding itself is a suburban swing riding which has voted for various parties in recent years. Nelly Shin is the incumbent and managed to win here in 2019. But ndp also did very well in the riding that year a lot of there supporters voted by mail this year so may not know the winner here till a few days after election.|
|I am looking at the vote totals of the last 6 elections and my conclusion is that the NDP will probably win 20k of vote. This has been steady going back to when Dawn Black was MP. Only in the Orange wave of 2011 did the NDP reach 23k. The stronger the LIB vote in this riding the more it hurts the CON vote total, granted you are probably looking around 5k who will switch between the two party, with the rest either voting LIB or not vote. With a rematch in this riding the NDP will probably go back to 20k vote since the green vote will drift back to them. The LIB will only go down. If you looking at the jump in the LIB vote in 2015, 4K are new voters and 4K are CON to LIB voters. With a CON incumbent, these 4K will swing back to some degree. CON also reached 20k under 08 and 11, but in those years NDP won both times.|
In the end NDP has a higher chance to win. It is their riding to lose.
PPC? They attract new voters mainly or protest votes.
|This is a BC NDP vs CPC showdown. The NDP are very well organized in the Greater Vancouver area, but the Conservative have the incumbency advantage.|
I want to say NDP, who are great at ground games. But right now they have too many ridings by NDP standards were they are competitive, stretching their resources thin with so many seats.
|Based on current polling trends where the NDP are up and the CPC down in BC relative to 2019 (with the liberals more or the less the same), I’m giving the nod to the NDP here.|
|Perhaps a little premature with the prediction this far out, but I think the NDP are the favourites here, even if you assume they'll do a little worse than expected. As has been noted, the Green vote has to go somewhere, and the NDP are likely to be the beneficiary expected, as most pollsters now expect. But the most relevant poll is perhaps the Insights West poll of BC - which have the NDP doing well and doing better across the province (and in Metro Vancouver/Lower Mainland, the LPC and CPC not performing much better). And it's a rematch from last time between the CPC and NDP candidates. So the idea that the riding seemed a bit off last time seems to make sense. TCTC is a valid call for now, but I'll put the NDP down as my firm favourites here (with CPC 2nd and Liberals 3rd).|
|This will likely be a fairly tight race as in previous years, but I think there's three factors that will put the NDP over the top. First is the lack of Green candidate, second is the general weakness of the Libs - especially in western Canada, and finally the PPC is a couple points stronger than they were last time around. Certainly not enough to say it's a lock, but the trends are good for orange.|
|I’m not certain who will win this seat, but one think I’m fairly certain of (at the moment) is that it will not go Conservative. Why? No Green candidate. In 2019 the Greens got 7% of the vote. It’s not much, but that vote gotta go somewhere. In a tight riding like this one, a few points will make all the difference.|
|This is the riding in BC all 3 main parties want desperately after a close 3 way race in 2019 saw conservative Nelly Shin narrowly win the riding. Except the green party which may not even be running a candidate here, one of a number of swing ridings in BC with no green candidate listed at this time. Bonita Zarrilo is back as the ndp candidate and liberals nominated a new candidate Will Davis. Nelly Shin has been mp for 2 years now but not that well known in Ottawa , far too tough to predict as things stand now .|
|This was to the Cons in '19 what the 3 successive ridings to the E were to the Libs in '15: ‘hey, we weren't supposed to win this!’--almost on a level with Jo-Ann Zazelenchuk knocking out Roy Romanow in Sask in '82 by 19 votes. To the point where Zarrillo giving it another go seems like a ‘let's get this right, then’ gesture of Romanovian inevitability. *Maybe*; though the acceptable campaign face O'Toole's putting on is making *none* of his incumbents necessarily seem like easy pushovers, Nelly Shin included. In fact, ‘relatively close’ or not, I wouldn't necessarily foresee 3rd for Shin; or at least if Zarrillo has a ‘narrow advantage’, it'd likelier be over the incumbent CPC than over the non-incumbent Libs...|
|The Conservative win here in 2019 was surprising, and they will not be able to reproduce that with their current polling numbers. It will be a close 3-way race, but I think the NDP will narrowly edge out the Liberals, with the Conservatives in a relatively close third.|
|This was a very, very close three-way race in 2019. Should be an exciting race next election.|
|The road to Ottawa leads right through this riding, and I'm not just talking about the Trans-Canada: all three major parties expect to win it en route to their respective governments.|
And that's great news for Coquitlamites: even when they vote for the ‘wrong’ party, residents of close ridings tend to attract veritable swarms of cabinet ministers bearing oversized cheques.
But with the federal polling not moving a whole lot from 2019 in BC, and with all three federal parties looking to greater Vancouver for major breakthroughs (Liberals hoping to weed out Conservative incumbents with ethnic outreach, Conservatives counting on Erin O'Toole to put a more acceptable face on the party for suburban voters, and the NDP eager to replicate their provincial branch's success in this region), anybody making predictions at this stage is courting trouble.
This will probably be the rare seat worth staying up for on election night.