Election Prediction Project

Port Moody-Coquitlam
2021 Federal Election ~ Élections fédérales

Prediction Changed
2021-06-09 23:58:20

Constituency Profile


Shin, Nelly

Zarrillo, Bonita M.


Nelly Shin

Population (2016):
Population (2011):

Private dwellings:
Dwellings occupied by usual residents:

Land area
Population Density



95.23 km²

2019 Results - 2019 Prediction

Nelly Shin 1685531.20%
Bonita Zarrillo 1670230.90%
Sara Badiei 1569529.10%
Bryce Watts 38737.20%
Jayson Chabot 8211.50%
Roland Verrier 570.10%

2015 Results - 2015 Prediction
   Reference - Pundits’ Guide (2013 Rep. Order)

Fin Donnelly ** 1970636.00%
Jessie Adcock 1688830.90%
Tim Laidler 1611229.50%
Marcus Madsen 18783.40%
Roland Verrier 830.20%

2011 Results (redistributed)

Other 1200.28%

Component Riding(s) (2003 Representation Order)

   New Westminster-Coquitlam
   (82.06% of voters in current riding)
   2011/2008/2004 Predictions
   Reference - Pundits’ Guide

   Port Moody-Westwood-Port Coquitlam
   (17.94% of voters in current riding)
   2011/2008/2004 Predictions
   Reference - Pundits’ Guide

21/07/20 Thomas K
The Conservative win here in 2019 was surprising, and they will not be able to reproduce that with their current polling numbers. It will be a close 3-way race, but I think the NDP will narrowly edge out the Liberals, with the Conservatives in a relatively close third.
07/06/21 Chris N
This was a very, very close three-way race in 2019. Should be an exciting race next election.
04/06/21 Libby Burgundy
The road to Ottawa leads right through this riding, and I'm not just talking about the Trans-Canada: all three major parties expect to win it en route to their respective governments.
And that's great news for Coquitlamites: even when they vote for the ‘wrong’ party, residents of close ridings tend to attract veritable swarms of cabinet ministers bearing oversized cheques.
But with the federal polling not moving a whole lot from 2019 in BC, and with all three federal parties looking to greater Vancouver for major breakthroughs (Liberals hoping to weed out Conservative incumbents with ethnic outreach, Conservatives counting on Erin O'Toole to put a more acceptable face on the party for suburban voters, and the NDP eager to replicate their provincial branch's success in this region), anybody making predictions at this stage is courting trouble.
This will probably be the rare seat worth staying up for on election night.

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