Election Prediction Project
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Ontario Provincial Election - 2022

Spadina-Fort York


Prediction Changed
2022-06-02 01:54:00
 



Constituency Profile

Candidates:

 

Asher, Angela

Des Granges, Cara

Glover, Chris

Neemuchwala, Husain

Nguyen, Chi

Osko, Jan


Incumbent:
Chris Glover

Population (2016):

115506
Population (2011):82480


2018 Election Result: (Prediction Page)

CHRIS GLOVER
24,67749.62%
HAN DONG *
11,77023.67%
IRIS YU
10,83421.79%
RITA BILERMAN
1,8153.65%
ERIK MALMHOLT
2780.56%
ADAM NOBODY
2710.54%
QUEENIE YU
860.17%


2014 Election Result:
(Transposition courtesy of Kyle Hutton)

16,660 48.30%
6,024 17.46%
9,216 26.71%
1,857 5.38%
OTHERS 739 2.14%
Total Transposed 34,496
      Component Riding(s)

Trinity-Spadina
(93.15% of voters in new riding)
2014/2011/2007 Predictions

Toronto Centre
(6.85% of voters in new riding)
2014/2011/2007 Predictions


2021 Federal Election Prediction


2019 Federal Election Result: (Prediction)

Adam Vaughan **
33,82255.80%
Diana Yoon
12,18820.10%
Frank Fang
10,68017.60%
Dean Maher
3,1745.20%
Robert Stewart
6721.10%
Marcela Ramirez
1140.20%


2015 Federal Election Result: (Prediction)

Adam Vaughan
30,14154.70%
Olivia Chow **
15,04727.30%
Sabrina Zuniga
8,67315.70%
Sharon Danley
1,1372.10%
Michael Nicula PACT/PRCT
910.20%
Nick Lin
590.10%


 

30/05/2022 Tony Ducey
24.137.72.105
I think the Liberals had a chance to win here early in the campaign but as the campaign has gone on I think that chance is gone. The NDP will hold this.
31/05/2022 Jeremus von Stroheim
23.248.145.246
Both parties have "good" candidates, but not particularly star candidates, so that can likely be excluded as a factor in the election. This area has been trending Liberal for a long time, as more condos get built. While it won't be a blowout, with the current polling numbers in Toronto, the NDP has to be losing support somewhere, and this is one of the most likely places it is. Only thing that would swing this NDP is Kevin Vuong, but it does seem like a riding like this will vote red no matter who.
30/05/2022 Eric
71.88.194.97
If you look on the Canadian election atlas website going back to 2003 poll-by-poll you can see where the old Trinity Spadina riding, which reached further away from the lake up to just past Dupont, got more orange the further one got from the lake ... with concentrations of red and even some PC blue closer to the lake ... so this is the second election fought on the new boundaries which are now further south at Dundas, hard to say for sure now that the NDP are in a down cycle but extrapolating polls and 2018 averages, with Han Dong no longer on the ballot for the Liberals, the NDP would have to fall quite a bit for a Liberal pickup ... close but orange ...
28/05/2022 ME
69.165.143.166
The NDP are surging in the riding and will come from behind to win
27/05/2022 RG
204.40.194.133
While I agree this is a typical Liberal riding, the NDP MPP has been very visible. The Liberals don't seem to have much ground game. There are lots of signs in homes and businesses for the NDP in my part of the riding.
26/05/2022 R.O.
24.146.13.249
No doubt many ridings in Toronto that could go liberal provincially under the right conditions and have been liberal in the past. Although the question is what ridings will they actually win this election with Ford still doing well in suburban Toronto and ndp holding most of the downtown ridings. Ive personally felt the liberals would gain back at least a couple seats in Toronto but since those gains are less and less obvious looking more likely that whatever seats they win will be by very small margins so harder to predict. Its looking like there could be a few really close races in the 416 between liberals and ndp.
21/05/2022 CD
66.234.34.46
You have to separate this from the history of Trinity-Spadina which did lean NDP but had half of its voters in Little Italy, Little Portugal and the annex. Those lean NDP areas are no longer part of this riding, this is a Liberal district in an average election. 2018 was an anomaly. If you set aside the 2018 Wynne rout, and the Kevin Vuong election which was an oddity given the circumstances, the trend is for Liberals to win this riding with 50%+. The NDP is nowhere near its 2018 strength in polling whereas the Liberals are at least +10 vs their 2018 numbers, with regional polls showing them leading the NDP in the 416 by as much as 2:1 ratio. They will most likely flip this seat.
18/05/2022 R.O.
24.146.13.249
Natural liberal riding ? Ive looked thru its political history and been ndp for decades except 2014 when Han Dong got elected. The pcs arent much of a factor here and this isnt a green target riding. So a race between the ndp and liberals. its still not really clear what party voters on the left actually favour this election unlike 2018 when the ndp surged or 1999 when liberals had an advantage over ndp. So this type of riding is hard to predict although I feel Chris Glover has an advantage as he is the incumbent and liberal lesser known.
18/05/2022 CD
66.234.34.46
Chris Glover will not hang on to this one.This is a natural Liberal riding in that will return to form given polling seems to show Liberals eating the NDP's lunch in the 416.
16/05/2022 PY
99.230.134.135
I may not originally be from Toronto myself, but even I know that Etobicoke's worlds apart from being downtown. That was the knock against Chris Glover from the beginning (as he was an Etobicoke-based TDSB trustee) and even though he has seemingly put in the work, Ruth Ellen Brosseau he isn't. That said, I believe one of the most important questions in the riding is whether he will be capable of 'walking the walk' if indeed he returns to the Legislature. Thus far, the answer is increasingly becoming 'no.'
This was a riding that undoubtedly took Kathleen Wynne's concession hard during the last election, but COVID and an overwhelming sense of remorse have taken hold since then. Combined, those very things don't work in Glover's favour. I also give constituents a lot of credit here...they're not as prone to confuse the levels of government nowadays, so Kevin Vuongs status as an MP won't be a factor.
Just as the Leafs are going to have to face some tough choices in the offseason, the ONDP may have to face one of their own with respect to Chris Glover.
28/04/22 LeftCoast
207.194.253.26
This will be a seat to watch. Incumbent NDPer Chris Glover has been somewhat low-profile compared to his caucus mates. Changing demographics have turned this riding into a wealthier, more lake-side condo sort of seat. Liberal numbers will boost first time candidate Chi Nguyen over the line.
23/04/22 Colin O’Neal
179.61.245.52
Given recent polling, I’m tempted to predict this for the Liberals, but can’t say for sure. One factor that might hurt the Liberal brand in SFY is the stench from the Kevin Vuong controversy in the recent federal election. a stretch? Maybe, but it could mean the difference is a close election race.
23/04/22 AD
198.84.175.242
I look at a riding like this and feel that the voters here will not have a good reason to return it to Liberal hands. The party simply hasn't had that kind of compelling campaign and unless something hefty is happening at the ground level with Nguyen, I doubt Glover will face much of a challenge from any other candidate.
29/03/22 A.S.
99.225.52.35
I'd *almost* give this to the NDP but for the kind of riding it is and Liberal condoland-repatriation allowance--though otherwise, Glover hasn't really offered a reason for promiscuous-progressive-to-moderate voters to toss him out other than some generic notion of an NDP vote being a parked vote. Plus, there's the matter of the state the OLP is in going into this election, and whether they have (this time, at least) the ballast to take back what they might feel is rightly theirs. (And frankly, it isn't just among the older condos/residents/retirees that the Tories find their support; a lot of the newer condos have an attractiveness to the Bay Street commuter crowd, the urban-millennial offspring of uptown Forest Hill and Lawrence Park types and affluent exurbans and the like. Which is why this was the strongest non-St Paul's downtown Toronto riding for the Tories in '18.)
21/03/22 R.O.
24.146.13.249
Chris Glover was first elected here in 2018 when he beat liberal mpp Han Dong who is now an mp for another Toronto riding. Prior to that riding had been ndp for a long time when Rosario Marchese mpp. Although boundaries have changed since then and new condos built along waterfront. Riding is also held by independent mp Kevin Vuong federally who is seen as a mistake and shouldn?€™t of even been nominated to begin with. Are voters here willing to risk going with another unknown candidate both liberal and pc candidates here are largely unknown or will they stay with the incumbent they know.
01/08/21 Stevo
164.177.56.217
NDP resilience here will depend on downtown Toronto replenishing its student, creative class, and young professional population that significantly diminished due to Covid. Without those younger renters it will be difficult for the NDP to hold this seat.
06/06/21 Chris N
24.36.32.209
If the Liberals are to regain their foothold in central Toronto and downtown, expect Spadina-Fort York to be one of the first that flips red. In a riding where residents can probably name their condo board members before their local elected politicians, I'm not sure how much of an advantage it is to be an incumbent. Interestingly, the PCs have pockets of support among the older waterfront condos, hitting above 30% in 2018 in some buildings, which typically have older residents and retirees.
05/06/21
99.226.172.248
Chris Glover, is a really strong community based MPP. I believe he'll will keep this seat for the NDP by a fairly healthy margin.



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