Election Prediction Project

Canada Federal Election - 2015


Prediction Changed
2015-10-18 00:30:29

Constituency Profile


Beaulieu, Stéphane

Bernatchez, Julien

Duceppe, Gilles

Fontaine, Pierre

Gaudreau, Daniel

Giraud, Cyrille

Lachapelle, Serge

Laverdière, Hélène

Poirier, Christine

(2011 census)


2011 Result/résultats (redistributed)

Other 6771.32%
Reference - Pundits’ Guide (2013 Rep)

Component Riding(s)
Circonscription(s) constituant

   (190/237 polls, 82.12% of voters in new riding)
   2011/2008/2004 Predictions
   Reference - Pundits’ Guide (2003 Rep Order)

Hélène Laverdière

   (23/237 polls, 10.48% of voters in new riding)
   2011/2008/2004 Predictions
   Reference - Pundits’ Guide (2003 Rep Order)

Marjolaine Boutin-Sweet

   (18/237 polls, 6.39% of voters in new riding)
   2011/2008/2004 Predictions
   Reference - Pundits’ Guide (2003 Rep Order)

Marc Garneau

   (6/237 polls, 1.01%of voters in new riding)
   2011/2008/2004 Predictions
   Reference - Pundits’ Guide (2003 Rep Order)

Hon. Thomas Mulcair


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15 10 18 Teddy Boragina
No poll, math, or anecdote suggests the Bloc will win here, the NDP has a virtual lock, and if they lose this riding, it will be to the Liberals.
As such, I wanted to let the editors know that they've accidentally put the image for the Bloc in the 'prediction' box.
15 10 18 Dr. Bear
I am not fully convinced that ol Gilles will be able to win this back. This is the riding that dumped the PQ incumbent (who came third after QS and the PLQ) in the recent provincial election. Also, how much liberal and conservative support will be thrown behind the NDP to block the bloc. There might not be much support but you only need a little boost to win a close race in first past the post systems.
15 10 11 Marco Ricci
Seat projections are now beginning to show Gilles Duceppe as having a chance at winning this riding back for the first time.
(53% chance of a BQ win according to Eric Grenier: http://www.threehundredeight.com/p/canada.html)
The question is, can the BQ have a strong enough organization this time to beat the NDP? Laverdiere is an incumbent this time, and has received positive reviews for her work as an NDP critic. On the other hand, she may not have the big Layton Wave working for in such large numbers this time.
I guess what we really need now is an updated, *independent* riding poll from Leger or another reputable pollster that isn't connected with the NDP like the first Laurier-Sainte-Marie & Papineau polls earlier in the Fall.
15 10 11 #ABC51
The Bloc Québécois is winning votes from the NDP on the back of anti-Niqab and anti-multiculturalist sentiments.
Even with a candidate like Gilles Duceppe running for the BQ, it's hard to imagine that these positions would be popular in this left-wing, culturally liberal riding.
Laverdière will get re-elected.
15 09 27 Marco Ricci
R.O., I'll try to answer your question about the CROP/NDP poll for Laurier-Sainte Marie. At the time it was published (which was back in August, I believe), Eric Grenier (who does the 308 site and appears on CBC as a polling analyst), said that it matched up pretty closely to his own seat projection for this riding.
The Papineau CROP/NDP poll was in conflict with Eric Grenier's seat projection, and also in conflict with Bryan Breguet's projection at Too Close To Call (both show Justin Trudeau winning). However, the Laurier-Sainte Marie poll appeared accurate.
However, a lot has happened since then and it's possible the NDP has dropped several points since that poll. The Leger Quebec poll last week showed that NDP support has dropped a few points in Quebec, and the first French debate has now happened. So while Duceppe is probably still behind here, it's possible there could be a bit of movement in the remaining 3 weeks.
15 09 24 prognosticator15
In a province with public opinion notoriously even more volatile that in the rest of Canada, no predictions should be posted for most Quebec ridings until the two French debates, one with PM Harper, one likely just between the leftists, without Harper, first on September 24. For a formidable speaker like Duceppe in particular, there is still a chance in these debates, and most voters to gain are from the NDP leading to huge changes in predictions everywhere but in Montreal's West Isle. This is still only a possibility, but a very realistic one. Add to this very serious problems NDP has always had with balancing sovereignty issue with its ingrained centralism, and the populism of its slogans, and there is hay to be made there. Duceppe has little to lose and he is now too experienced after 2011 loss to make another error on sovereignty issue. Much of campaign is still ahead, Bloc is not yet dead.
15 09 20 R.O.
Just a though since there has been a lot of serious questions raised about the crop poll the ndp released for papineau. I was left wondering about the crop poll the ndp released for this riding and if maybe it should be questioned more as everyone just seemed to assume it was accurate ? maybe the race is closer here as well , but I don't know just something I wondered about
Juste un bien que depuis il y a eu beaucoup de questions graves soulevées à propos du sondage CROP, le NPD a publié de Papineau . Je me demandais à propos du sondage CROP le NPD a publié pour cette circonscription et s'ils devraient peut-être être interrogés plus comme tout le monde semble juste de supposer qu'elle était exacte ? Peut-être que la course est plus proche ici ainsi , mais je ne sais pas juste quelque chose que je me le demandais
15 09 17 #ABC51
The NDP is looking ground to the Liberals, but the BQ also appears to be losing ground to the NDP.
Thus, Duceppe will not take back this riding.
If he wanted back into politics that badly, he should have jumped to the provincial side and campaigned for Premier. With no popular NDP leaders to deal with, he would have likely taken back much of the left-wing vote from Quebec Solidaire and much of the more moderate soft-nationalist vote from the PLQ and the CAQ. Being both a card-carrying New Democrat and an admirer of Duceppe's, I would have been very pleased with this outcome.
15 09 17
The NDP is losing ground to the Liberals, but the BQ also appears to be losing ground to the NDP.
Thus, Duceppe will not take back this riding.
If he wanted back into politics that badly, he should have jumped to the provincial side and campaigned for Premier. With no popular NDP leaders to deal with, he would have likely taken back much of the left-wing vote from Quebec Solidaire and much of the more moderate soft-nationalist vote from the PLQ and the CAQ. Being both a card-carrying New Democrat and an admirer of Duceppe's, I would have been very pleased with this outcome.
15 09 05 R.O.
I don't know if Duceppe has any chance here or not. I did a search of google and is still a lot of media articles being written about Duceppe this election , places he has visited and other stories about the election. He still seems to have a large presence in Quebec even if bloc Quebecois not polling high this election. One disadvantage he faces being leader is he is out visiting other ridings around Quebec and cannot focus much time in this riding. Allowing for the ndp incumbent to focus more time here than he can. With duceppe's profile in Quebec I still think he could get elected as an mp , one might wonder if he choose the wrong riding to attempt a come back in and might have been easier targets elsewhere in Quebec ?
Je ne sais pas si Duceppe a toute chance ici ou non. J'ai fait une recherche de Google et est encore beaucoup d'articles dans les médias qu'on écrive à propos Duceppe cette élection , des lieux qu'il a visités et d'autres histoires à propos de l'élection. Il semble encore avoir une présence importante au Québec, même si les députés du Bloc québécois pas d'interrogation élevé cette élection. L'un des désavantages il risque d'être leader est il visite les autres circonscriptions autour de Québec et ne peut se concentrer beaucoup de temps dans cette circonscription. Permettant le NPD titulaire de consacrer plus de temps ici qu'il peut. Avec son profil au Québec duceppe je pense encore qu'il pourrait se faire élire comme député , on peut se demander s'il choisir la mauvaise circonscription pour tenter un revenir dans et pourrait avoir été des cibles plus faciles ailleurs au Québec ?
15 09 04 Marco Ricci
Looks like Duceppe & the BQ are now heading for a loss here because of the collapse in BQ support, and the particular riding poll here showing Duceppe trailing by a wide margin.
The only factors that could help Duceppe over the next month are if the declining NDP numbers outside Quebec begin to effect the NDP's numbers in Quebec, or if Duceppe has a really good debate performance once the French debates arrive.
15 09 03 Laurence Putnam
It's incredible how quickly a fickle public can turn on he who only a few years ago was the most popular politician in Quebec....but I must concur that it seems Monsieur Duceppe is viewed as yesterday's man.
15 09 02 Tony
Will be interesting but given the fact Duceppe lost last time and the NDP could form the next government and Helene has been one of the more visible members of the NDP I think they'll win.
15 09 02 Pulsetaker
A CROP poll has been released that has Duceppe being CRUSHED in this riding - Laverdiere the NDP incumbent is at 57% and Duceppe at a measly 20% barely ahead of the Liberal who has 15%
15 08 29 Marco Ricci
While it's certainly possible that Duceppe may lose his comeback bid, we do have to keep in mind that we are still only in the early stages of a longer than usual election.
We need to remember that the French debates have not happened yet, and that Duceppe hasn't had an opportunity to face off against Mulcair, Trudeau & Harper. Once we get the French debates later this Fall, we will know whether Duceppe still has a chance or whether it's over.
The NDP has been under some criticism this week for moving to the right and for considering austerity measures. There was a negative piece about Mulcair in Le Journal De Montreal, so Duceppe may have an opening as we enter the Fall phase of the election.
15 08 27 Spx
There is no way Duceppe is going to win his riding back. People have moved on and are quite happy now being Orange, if anything Hélène Laverdière is going to increase her vote total. Duceppe should have enjoyed his retirement instead of jumping back in. NDP hold!
15 08 25 CGD
The NDP should absolutely win this one. The fact that Duceppe has no chance here speaks volumes about the fortunes of the Bloc & PQ fortunes in Québec these days. 2015 may be the final nail in the coffin of the Bloc. Losing the per vote subsidy and having had no effective leadership for 4 years, it appears the party is over and this riding will confirm that.
15 08 05 RJC
I honestly can't imagine Duceppe taking back this seat at this point. If it happens, it will be because the NDP has declined considerably from its current position in the polls. This seat is more leftist than sovereigntist and with the NDP polling so well, I find it hard to believe they will switch back to the Bloc.
15 08 03 A.S.
It may have seemed logical and natural for Duceppe to run in his own riding; unfortunately when it comes to a seat like this, biking around with PKP on behalf of the PQ/BQ united-front cause might be like a bullet in les pieds. Like, this is a Quebec Solidaire type of seat, not a PKP kind of seat...
15 08 02 Marco Ricci
La Presse confirms that Gilles Duceppe is running in Laurier-Sainte-Marie:
Gilles Duceppe candidat dans Laurier-Sainte-Marie
15 07 17 Neal Ford
The only possible way this riding goes anything but NDP is if Duceppe runs here. That said, even if he does, this one goes TCTC, and NOT into the Bloc column.
It is the most left wing riding in Canada (except perhaps Vancouver East) and if the NDP looks like it will form the government, the NDP will win. If a week before the vote, it appears the NDP is on the decline, then the Bloc would have a chance.
I have long said that This riding, Pointe de L'ile, Hochelaga, & Rosemont-Petite Patrie were natural NDP territory, so it will be difficult to dislodge any of those incumbents except perhaps the weak Eve Peclet in PDI.
Duceppe is caught between a rock and a hard place, He looks like a coward if he doesn't run here, but there is a way for him to save face and run somewhere else. If he does not live in Laurier, then he could run in his home riding and get away with it, free from accusations of cowardice.
We shall see how this one shakes out.
15 07 16 Dr Bear
Duceppe or not, I doubt this will be won by the BQ. This naturally is a NDP riding and would have been orange ages ago if this were any other city. Now that the NDP won this eat by 12 point in 2011, there is little reason voters will run back to the BQ (especially with the prospect of an NDP government...they'll want to be on side). I'm fairly sure Deceppe and company know this and will have him run in a safer seat.
15 07 05 #ABC51
Most left-wing riding in Canada thank to the Mount Royal Plateau and the Gay Village.
I think NDP holds it because Mulcair is more popular than Layton was in 2011, and Duceppe, while a great guy, still lost this riding and is still Duceppe.
15 06 11 Marco Ricci
Gilles Duceppe has now officially taken over from Mario Beaulieu as BQ Leader.
It has not been officially announced yet which riding he will be running in, but if he decides to run here in his old riding, this seat will presumably become Too Close To Call. He held the seat from 1990-2011, and only lost in the Layton Wave.
15 06 09 Observer
Selon La Presse, on a des nouvelles ce matin que Gilles Duceppe sera de retour comme chef Bloquiste. Mario Beaulieu s'est rendu compte que sous son direction, le Bloc Quebecois va nulle-part et risquait d'etre éffacé du carte électorale, donc, on a arrivé a une enetente qu reverra M. Duceppe a son ancien position.
Est ce que ca changera beaucoup? Avant d'accepter, l'équipe de M. Duceppe a prs une sondage, et a découvert que Le Bloc attirera 3 fois des voix sur son directon qu'a celle de M. Beaulieu. Sans doute Il pourrait attirer de l'argent et des candidates, possiblement des vedettes de son anien équipe.
Alors je crois que le Bloc poura faire in impacte non-negligible cette élection, en reprendre des sieges en Monterégie, Laurentides, Lanaudiere, Gaspésie, Mauricie, Lac St Jean et en quelques circonscriptions en Estrie.
Restez branchés.
According to La Presse, there is news today that Gilles Duceppe will be returning to the leadership of the Bloc Quebecois. Mario Beaulieu had come to terms with the fact that the party was going nowhere fast under his leadership, perhaps even looking a a complete wipeout, so they arrived at a deal that would see M. Duceppe return to his old job.
Will that change much? Before accepting, Duceppe's team commissioned a poll and found that the Bloc would attract 3 times as many votes under Duceppe than they would under M. Beaulieu. No doubt he will also bring in some much needed money, and some candidates, perhaps many from his old caucus.
Therefore I believe the Bloc could pose a threat to win seats in Montéregie, Laurentides, Lanaudiere, Gaspésie, Maurice. Lac St Jean and some ridings in the Eastern Townships.
Stay tuned
15 03 28 monkey
By nature, this is fairly NDP friendly riding in terms of demographics and with Gilles Duceppe out, I suspect it will stay that way never mind Quebec Solidaire tends to do well here. While I am not quite ready to call it for them due to the fact Quebecers are known for changing on a moment's notice, unless something dramatic happens between now and October 19th, I think the NDP is the best bet.
15 03 26 B.W.
This used to be Ex-BQ leader Gilles Duceppe's riding until he became a victim of the NDP's orange wave that sent former diplomat Helene Laverdiere to the House of Commons. With the riding dominated by the arts culture in the Plateau, and gay village in southeast in addition to it being represented provincially by two MNAs, Amir Khadr and Manon Masse of the left wing and progressive sovereigntist party Quebec Solidaire, this should likely stay NDP.
15 03 24 Dr. Bear
If the advent of the BQ never happened in the '90's this riding would have turned NDP about the same time as other Canadian city-center ridings turned orange. This was also the riding that turfed a PQ incumbent for a QS challenger provincially (incidentally the Liberals came second in that race, ahead of the PQ incumbent). Now the voters have a front-bench MP for a party the truly reflects their interests. Easy NDP hold.
15 03 24 Brian A
This riding belonged to Duceppe for more than the fact that he was a party leader. Laurier-Sainte Marie has the artistic nationalists on the Plateau, the working-class public sector in east-end Montreal, and the 2nd-largest 'Gay Village' in Canada. This riding would have been NDP years ago were it not for the Bloc. Now the Bloc are dead, and this riding easily falls into the 'NDP fortress' category. Tom will lose Outremont before Helene or any NDP candidate loses Laurier.
15 03 21 Mr. Montreal
La circonscription que représentait Gilles Duceppe n'a pas voté pour le parti dont il a été le chef en 2011, et ce ne sera fort probablement pas le cas en 2015. Quand on pense aux artistes et aux autres groupes de gens au Québec qui votent traditionnellement pour les partis de gauche, on pense immédiatement au gens du Plateau et de Ville-Marie. De ce fait, le NPD est le mieux placé pour influencer le vote de ces gens. Mais gare aux bêtises monsieur Mulcair, la marge n'est pas forcément très grande avec la montée du PLC!

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