Galea, Victoria
	Laranjo, Bert
	Malik, Yousaf
	Ricottone, Daniel
	Rocchi, Spencer
	Tassi, Filomena
Incumbent:
	Filomena Tassi

References:

Population (2016): Population (2011): Private dwellings: Dwellings occupied by usual residents: Land area Population Density			113024 109535 44962 42188 100.37 km² 1126.1/km²
2015 Results - 2015 Prediction    Reference - Pundits’ Guide (2013 Rep. Order)
	Filomena Tassi	29694	47.70%
	Vincent Samuel	19821	31.80%
	Alex Johnstone	10131	16.30%
	Peter Ormond	2633	4.20%
2011 Results (redistributed)
		22555	42.39%
		14997	28.19%
		13254	24.91%
		1985	3.73%
Other		408	0.77%
Component Riding(s) (2003 Representation Order)
Ancaster-Dundas-Flamborough-Westdale    (66.22% of voters in current riding)    2011/2008/2004 Predictions    Reference - Pundits’ Guide
Hamilton Centre    (22.28% of voters in current riding)    2011/2008/2004 Predictions    Reference - Pundits’ Guide
Hamilton Mountain    (11.5% of voters in current riding)    2011/2008/2004 Predictions    Reference - Pundits’ Guide
2018 Provincial Results - 2018 Prediction
	Sandy Shaw	23921	43.19%
	Ben Levitt	17189	31.03%
	Ted Mcmeekin *	10960	19.79%
	Peter Ormond	2302	4.16%
2014 Provincial Results (redistributed)
		20760	43.21%
		12383	25.78%
		11941	24.86%
		2368	4.93%
Other		588	1.22%

	20/10/19	Tony Ducey 24.137.73.188
Liberal hold for the minister of seniors, Filomena Tassi.
	14/10/19	Chris N 24.36.32.209
I think this riding is leaning towards the Liberals, but I suspect the Conservatives are nipping at their heels. I'm surprised by the strength of the Greens in the riding, especially in Westdale and Dundas, which is likely eating into the Liberal vote of two Liberal bastions. Secondly, the NDP, while running a fairly weak candidate, is likely eating away votes from the Liberals in the more blue collar and immigrant oriented apartment corridors of the west mountain.
	11/10/19	prognosticator15 72.141.255.189
First, violence against PPC at Maxim Bernier's Mohawk College event and outing of an Antifa perpetrator of an attack on elderly couple as a Syrian refugee may create a boost in PPC support locally as it highlights the one party with impact on the elections' truly important immigration debate, even if nationally the progressivist media will minimize the event's impact. Watch for PPC vote being above average in Hamilton ridings. Second, CPC, NDP and Liberals can all still win in this riding in a three-way race in spite of the incumbency power - Centre and Mountain will clearly be a progressivist fight. The Ford factor has been much overhyped in this election due to Liberal decision to constantly emphasize it as a no-loss propaganda tool. Even if one accepts a questionable notion that Premier Ford is very unpopular in ON among the left (and certainly not with about a third of the population who remain defined provincial PC supporters), the poor record of Liberal government on federal issues is more important in ON suburban electorate's choices, and the question is where this anti-Liberal vote moves - it may be going either way (possibly partly based also on that ugly intimidating climate hysteria of elitists), though most of their 2015 voters will stay with the Liberals. TCTC to the end.
	15/09/19	Hammer 142.116.85.240
Incumbency is the factor here. HWAD is probably the most natural Liberal riding in Hamilton and any challenge will come from the NDP. Dissatisfied Liberals mainly voted NDP in the provincial election. The people will stick with a Liberal incumbent unless absolutely necessary and then they will vote NDP.
	23/08/20	Dr. Bear 69.196.163.242
When Hamilton East and Mountain are firmly in the NDP column, then come talk to me about Hamilton West being TCTC. NDP is not sparking any joy lately and won't be gaining any new seats that weren't close in 2015. CPC is down several points from 2015 and the Ford factor will ensure this seat stays out of Conservative hands.
	11/08/20	A.S. 99.225.32.21
Given 2018's provincial dynamics, McMeekin's loss wasn't such a shock; and Justin's no Wynne. And as 2018 also proved, a collapsed Liberal vote isn't necessarily going to default blue hereabouts--and you can be sure that the Ford backlash has *really* got to sink in in a riding defined by McMaster U. Which, in a Jagmeet-can't-win climate, leaves the question of where such a vote would collapse *to*, i.e. a campus-town NDP-Green split *could* conceivably hand this to the Cons at around 30% of the vote. And Tassi, who in 2015 was plagued by questions over her pro-life et al past, has never been the best fit either for the riding or for the Justin-era Liberals; so if she returns, it's more or less by default...
	10/07/19	Kumar Patel 99.254.33.154
Liberal hold. If Ford didn't win it, Scheer will not either.
	02/06/19	seasaw 99.225.244.232
While this is the most Liberal friendly riding in Hamilton proper, it can also be considered somewhat Tory friendly. Right now, TCTC is the right call. It will change as we get closer to the election day.
	20/05/19	Sam 86.139.27.220
A while ago, I would have said this was a Liberal hold. I said that about Eglinton-Lawrence, Markham-Thornhill and Sault Ste Marie, but like those three, I'm really not so sure now.As RightHonourableAdult correctly pointed out, the swing required is sizeable, but not impossible - 2015 was a high mark for them, and if the Liberals continue to trail in the polls, then Bert Laranjo could easily pull it off. The provincial result for Ted McMeekin was also a shock. I think it's definitely TCTC for now.
	07/04/19	Right Honourable Adult 108.162.188.167
While it's quite true that this is the most Liberal-friendly riding of the region, it would only take a 5,000 vote swing from the 2015 numbers to flip this to the Tories. It's hard to see the Liberals matching that enthusiasm again this year, especially in light of the Lavscam issue. The Tories will have their work cut out for them but have a plausible shot at flipping this one in '19.
	20/03/19	Joe P 204.40.194.130
This riding isn't in play for the CPC unless the Liberals really start bleeding support more than they already have. Even in that scenario I still wouldn't favour the CPC. If Doug Ford couldn't win this riding then I don't see how Scheer can.
	28/02/19	Dr.Bear 204.187.20.70
This is the most liberal-friendly of all of the Hamilton ridings. If there is one seat in The Hammer that will go team red, this will be the one. Could go either CPC or (less likely) NDP under the right circumstances, but I do not see that happening at the moment.