Dykeman, Whitney
	Floyd, Josh
	Moore, Rob
	Thompson, Tim
	Wheeler, Wayne
Incumbent:
	Rob Moore

References:

Population (2016): Population (2011): Private dwellings: Dwellings occupied by usual residents: Land area Population Density			79943 79386 34819 31562 7230.86 km² 11.10/km²
2019 Results - 2019 Prediction
	Rob Moore	22389	46.00%
	Alaina Lockhart **	12433	25.60%
	Tim Thompson	7275	15.00%
	James Tolan	4804	9.90%
	Rudy Neumayer	1249	2.60%
	David Raymond Amos	295	0.60%
	John Evans	201	0.40%
2015 Results - 2015 Prediction    Reference - Pundits’ Guide (2013 Rep. Order)
	Alaina Lockhart	19136	40.90%
	Rob Moore **	17361	37.10%
	Jennifer McKenzie	8204	17.50%
	Stephanie Coburn	1823	3.90%
	David Raymond Amos	296	0.60%
2011 Results (redistributed)
		22817	57.95%
		10577	26.86%
		4109	10.44%
		1859	4.72%
Other		6	0.02%
Component Riding(s) (2003 Representation Order)
Fundy Royal    (92.48% of voters in current riding)    2011/2008/2004 Predictions    Reference - Pundits’ Guide
Beauséjour    (3.78% of voters in current riding)    2011/2008/2004 Predictions    Reference - Pundits’ Guide
Saint John    (3.35% of voters in current riding)    2011/2008/2004 Predictions    Reference - Pundits’ Guide
New Brunswick Southwest    (0.39% of voters in current riding)    2011/2008/2004 Predictions    Reference - Pundits’ Guide

	25/08/21	R.O. 24.146.13.237
Rob Moore was first elected in 2004 in this rural New Brunswick riding which has a long conservative history. Other than 93 and 2015 which were liberal sweeps out east. Likely to stay conservative.
	19/08/21	A.S. 99.225.52.35
Of the 3 shouldn't-have-switched-so-bounced-back Con seats in NB, this one was actually technically the ‘weakest’--but still an over 20-point margin; blame suburban Moncton & Saint John for any token softness at that end. Or if there *is* another '93/'15-style ‘bump’, perhaps with an assist from hiving-off of the Con fringe to the PPC realm, it's those 'burbs where Liberal stability along the lines of good old fashioned Tory stability is likeliest to be sought. (But one indicator of *something*: aside from urban polls in Riverview/Hampton/Quispamsis, the only Liberal polls were the Fundy Park-and-east trio from Alma to Riverside-Albert. The most ‘touristic’ part of the riding, IOW.)
	04/08/21	Laurence Putnam 207.81.215.3
Rob Moore is essentially the senior Tory from the Atlantic and Fundy-Royal has gone Tory in every election back to '97 with the exceptions of 2004 and 2015. Even with a lacklustre national campaign, the Tories can reasonably rely on Fundy-Royal.
	06/06/21	J.F. Breton 38.23.227.9
Circonscription de tradition conservatrice du sud-ouest du Nouveau-Brunswick. Sera sans doute l'une des dernières à tomber en cas de raz-de-marée libéral.