Election Prediction Project

Canada Federal Election - 2015


Prediction Changed
2015-03-17 23:41:59

Constituency Profile


Bendayan, Rachel

Diallo, Amara

Galland Barou, Roger

Husny, Rodolphe

Mulcair, Tom

Pouliot, Francis

Welsh, Adrien

(2011 census)


2011 Result/résultats (redistributed)

Other 3610.86%
Reference - Pundits’ Guide (2013 Rep)

Component Riding(s)
Circonscription(s) constituant

   (154/184 polls, 86.46% of voters in new riding)
   2011/2008/2004 Predictions
   Reference - Pundits’ Guide (2003 Rep Order)

Hon. Thomas Mulcair

   (26/184 polls, 12.77% of voters in new riding)
   2011/2008/2004 Predictions
   Reference - Pundits’ Guide (2003 Rep Order)

Hélène Laverdière

   (2/184 polls, 0.76% of voters in new riding)
   2011/2008/2004 Predictions
   Reference - Pundits’ Guide (2003 Rep Order)

Marc Garneau

   Mount Royal
   (2/184 polls, 0.01%of voters in new riding)
   2011/2008/2004 Predictions
   Reference - Pundits’ Guide (2003 Rep Order)

Hon. Irwin Cotler


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15 10 16 M
Trudeau campaigned yesterday in Outremont. I read in a newspaper article that Mulcair was only ahead by 3 percent. I have a feeling that this will be a Liberal win, and more bad news for the NDP on the heels of a poorly thoughtout campaign and party policy.
15 10 15 Marco Ricci
#ABC51, I agree with you that people should be cautious about making Liberal predictions here. I give the edge to Mulcair based on incumbency & a presumably strong organization that is still in place.
However, I would point out that your own predictions obviously have a pro-NDP bias. You have posted on other riding pages that the NDP are the 'good guys'.
I myself have voted both NDP & Liberal in the past and as a progressive voter I try to objectively post predictions in each riding based on the available information out there. So I think NDP & Liberal partisans should both keep that in mind. I'm not a member of either party, so I feel I can look at the chances of each objectively.
Btw, the Quebec press announced today that Justin Trudeau is campaigning in Outremont tomorrow. That could be a sign that this riding is getting closer than expected. Or perhaps JT just wants to have a little fun at Mulcair's expense after the tricks Mulcair's team pulled on JT last month with the fake Papineau poll! :)
15 10 14 #ABC51
Sorry, Liberal propaganda machine, it's not going to happen!
Approval ratings and best PM ratings show that Mulcair is still personally very popular in Quebec.
Moreover, you're asking the Liberals to overturn a 34-point defeat against an incumbent leader who is not leading an unpopular government.
Mulcair by 15.
15 10 13 PY
I'm also willing to be a contrarian here. Mulcair is in mortal danger, with La Presse having endorsed the Liberals and the Toronto Star following suit down the 401.
Buyer's remorse seems to be increasingly prevalent in Quebec, just as it's been in the rest of the country; the niqab issue aside, the relative weakness of the NDP's slate of candidates is a major concern (for example, I still have no clue who plans B or C are for finance minister if the NDP were to form government). As such, it's likely that Mulcair will have to run the show and that's a frightening prospect to those still on the fence.
If the national Nanos numbers and the recent ones from Forum hold, Mulcair might only have the hardcore and sympathetic to draw upon.
15 10 11 Locksley
Quebec voters are notoriously fickle and no leader's seat is safe. Just as Trudeau's seat was vulnerable at the start of the election now Mulcair's seat has also become a liability. This may not be of too much concern however as if Mulcair loses the election he would likely resign if he was the third party anyway. This may provide additional drama come October 19th and will be one to watch.
15 10 08 South Islander
A month ago, this looked like an NDP landslide and the party was making a play for Trudeau's seat. Now, 308.com has Trudeau holding with 93% probability, and Mulcair's hold only 71%. The NDP have blown their lead in QC and nationally. The Mulcair factor was certainly a boon in 2007, 2008 and 2011, but will that be the case this time? It probably depends on whether the NDP continues to slide. Some polls have the NDP in in third behind the Tories and Liberals in Quebec. If voters are disappointed enough that he blew it, he might not enjoy the Mulcair advantage. In past elections, he looked like a future NDP leader, but at this point, he's looking like a very-soon-to-be-past NDP leader. I can't say the Liberals are favoured at this point, but I think this riding is far from safe.
15 10 04 Agent Red
Muclair is so vulnerable here. With his slide in QC people are going to give this riding back to the Liberals where they held that riding since 1993.
15 09 05 A.S.
The thing people overlook in talking about Mulcair's 'shock' victory in a hitherto 'poor' NDP seat is that for five pre-Mulcair elections running, Outremont saw the strongest NDP result in Quebec--that is, even if the share was still pretty low, Outremont was already established as a semi-official 'reserve seat' for any future competitive Dipper run in Quebec. (A scheme which, by way of byelection miracle, actually worked out as planned.) Of course, a cynic might now claim that as a pro-Sherbrooke pro-Thatcher former Liberal MNA, Mulcair makes *all* alternative voting options in Outremont redundant...
15 08 03 John
I don't see Thomas Mulcair losing his own seat.
1) He is party leader.
2) Unless the Conservatives win another majority, or there is an enormous surge in Liberal support, Mulcair would be the next Prime Minister.
15 03 28 monkey
Regardless of how the NDP does nationally, I cannot see Mulcair losing his own riding. This was already the NDP's strongest riding in Quebec in 2004 and 2006 and with Mulcair the NDP leader who is well liked in Quebec, he should easily hold this. Never mind if the Liberals falter, the progressive vote nationally could swing behind the NDP or likewise if the Tories only win a minority, the Liberals and NDP could decide to form a coalition in which case Mulcair would almost certainly be a cabinet minister.
15 03 19 Craig Hubley
Mulcair hold. Mulcair as of March 2015 is more popular than any other federal party leader. I don't expect him to take next-door Papineau on his coat-tails, but it's more likely than the Liberals unseating him here.
15 03 17 JFBreton
Mulcair ne craint rien dans sa circonscription. Victoire aisée avec prime au chef, surtout si on assiste à une lutte nationale à trois.

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