Election Prediction Project

Miramichi-Grand Lake
2019 Federal Election ~ Élections fédérales

Prediction Changed
2019-10-22 02:17:59

Constituency Profile


Clancy Teslenko, Eileen

Deitch, Patty

Finnigan, Pat

Lawson, Mathew Grant

MacKenzie, Allison

McLean, Peggy

Nowlan, Ron


Pat Finnigan

Population (2016):
Population (2011):

Private dwellings:
Dwellings occupied by usual residents:

Land area
Population Density



16867.04 km²

2015 Results - 2015 Prediction
   Reference - Pundits’ Guide (2013 Rep. Order)

Pat Finnigan 1720247.30%
Tilly O'Neill-Gordon ** 1247634.30%
Patrick Colford 558815.40%
Matthew Ian Clark 10983.00%

2011 Results (redistributed)

Other 400.12%

Component Riding(s) (2003 Representation Order)

   (82.59% of voters in current riding)
   2011/2008/2004 Predictions
   Reference - Pundits’ Guide

   (9.74% of voters in current riding)
   2011/2008/2004 Predictions
   Reference - Pundits’ Guide

   (6.27% of voters in current riding)
   2011/2008/2004 Predictions
   Reference - Pundits’ Guide

   (1.4% of voters in current riding)
   2011/2008/2004 Predictions
   Reference - Pundits’ Guide

17/10/19 Tony Ducey
The CPC could have won the riding back but they've changed candidates here like some people change their socks. I think that hurts them and they'll lose a low hanging fruit riding.
06/10/19 R.O.
A new riding poll shows a close race between liberal mp Patrick Finnigan and cpc candidate Peggy Mclean in this riding.
Close race in Miramichi-Grand Lake, Mainstreet polls By Jolson Lim. Published on Oct 5, 2019 2:19pm
22/09/19 HAS
I think Trudeau just sank Team Finnigan and the Conservatives will squeak out a close win. The stay at home Liberal vote will be high in the Maritimes.
15/09/19 JSn
Shifting candidates is fatal. So is vowing to re-open fossil fuel wars with the native community.
Add in PPC and a general willingness of Greens to swap votes or hold their nose individually to keep Cons out, and the collapse of the NB NDP, this is not too soon to call for the Liberal incbemt
31/08/19 A.S.
Besides the CPC-candidacy confusion, a question I have here, as re other apparent low-hanging Conservative fruit in New Brunswick, is what the PPC's vote-splitting potential might be, given how a certain element within that party's existence arguably aligns with the region's affinity for breakaway right-of-centre forces like CoR and PANB. In any case, this is the highest-hanging of that low-hanging fruit, thanks to coastal Acadiana.
19/07/19 Sam
What are the local Conservatives doing? They're in their third candidate now, Peggy McLean. Without O'Neill-Gordon, who had significant local popularity, it becomes harder for them. TCTC with the erratic polls.
10/07/19 Marco Ricci
With the Liberals now moving ahead of the Conservatives nationally in the new Nanos & Mainstreet polls, and being tied or ahead of the Conservatives in Atlantic Canada in Ekos, I think this riding should probably still be too close to call.
The former Conservative MP running again could be a good thing for the Conservatives, but it's not a guarantee of a win yet now that the Liberals are moving ahead again.
28/06/19 Sam
Wasn't sure about the projection change, but now that former MP Tilly O'Neill Gordon is the candidate, I'm confident in the party's chances here. Although this is a part of NB I know less well, I do know that she was popular here, and she is definitely the best candidate they could find. As has been said, the CPC of today will be still palatable here, as the boundaries keep out both the Green/Liberal Kent areas or any areas towards Bathurst, and take in a lot of PANB territory towards the edge of Fredericton. For these reasons I suspect the Conservatives will win with about 45% of the vote.
14/06/19 Craig
Another New Brunswick riding I am ready to call. Given the rapid rise in Conservative support (and fall of Liberal support) in Atlantic Canada as polls are consistently showing a Conservative lead region-wide, the CPC should take Miramichi back.
It may not be the easiest win as the Liberals still have very strong areas (particularly near the coast) but the Greens were strong there provincially too - hint, hint? The return to prevalence for the Conservatives, the fall of Trudeau and Green vote splitting should flip this one.
05/04/19 Craig
This is NOT a safe Liberal seat. Even in 2015, Finnigan couldn't get a majority of the vote, while the 2018 provincial results were a hodgepodge. The Liberals will likely do very well along the Northumberland coast, but they might have to watch out for any Green gains. They are catching on in New Brunswick provincially and it is unclear if that will translate federally.
Inland, the Conservatives should get their support back and they don't seem to mind populism either - the PANB won Miramichi and nearly won Bay du Vin. That means that even if immigration and language policy becomes an issue, it won't hurt them nearly as bad as elsewhere. For those reasons, I'd say this is too close to call.
31/03/19 Murphy
Surprised this is already called for the Liberals. Definitely not a safe Liberal seat, especially with the current polling trends. Should these trends continue, the Conservatives will win this riding, regardless of their candidate.
03/03/19 Sam
Not a safe riding for the Liberals by any means but definitely a riding they can retain. Pat Finnigan has been a dedicated MP and led on key issues for the area, and so is in a good position. The fundamentals however mean the Conservatives can take it although the winds will have to be in their favour.

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